Corvus journal

Every alert the Corvus channels have posted since ⁦2026‑08‑03⁩, and how its market ended. Nothing is left out.

Price paid and what happened

On Polymarket the price of an outcome is the market's own estimate of its chance. This table sets the price wallets paid in these alerts against the number of times the outcome then happened. Only purchases in resolved markets are counted.

  • ⁦0–20¢⁩: bought 10 times, happened 6
  • ⁦20–40¢⁩: bought 163 times, happened 41
  • ⁦40–60¢⁩: bought 923 times, happened 458
  • ⁦60–80¢⁩: bought 464 times, happened 324
  • ⁦80–100¢⁩: bought 342 times, happened 318

Published research on who profits on Polymarket: Akey, Grégoire, Harvie & Martineau, SSRN 6443103 (2026)

DateMarketMoveHow it endedWallet
2026-10-01Steelers vs. Brownsbought ⁨Steelers⁩ at 58¢market still openshown once the market resolves
2026-10-01Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01?sold ⁨Yes⁩ at 100¢market still openshown once the market resolves
2026-10-01Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?bought ⁨No⁩ at 63¢market still openshown once the market resolves
2026-10-01Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Nemiga (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffsbought ⁨FaZe⁩ at 60¢market still openshown once the market resolves
2026-10-01Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01?bought ⁨Yes⁩ at 53¢market still openshown once the market resolves
2026-10-01Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01?bought ⁨Yes⁩ at 52¢market still openshown once the market resolves
2026-10-01Germany vs. Serbia: O/U 3.5bought ⁨Over⁩ at 51¢market still openshown once the market resolves
2026-10-01Colts vs. Commandersbought ⁨Colts⁩ at 64¢market still openshown once the market resolves
2026-10-01Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Bravesbought ⁨Philadelphia Phillies⁩ at 51¢market still openshown once the market resolves
2026-10-01Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Nemiga (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffsbought ⁨FaZe⁩ at 58¢market still openshown once the market resolves
2026-10-01Spread: Bills (-6.5)bought ⁨Patriots⁩ at 48¢market still openshown once the market resolves
2026-10-01Will Norway win on 2026-10-01?bought ⁨Yes⁩ at 69¢market still openshown once the market resolves
2026-10-01Will Wales vs. Norway end in a draw?bought ⁨No⁩ at 81¢market still openshown once the market resolves
2026-10-01Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Bravesbought ⁨Philadelphia Phillies⁩ at 50¢market still openshown once the market resolves
2026-10-01Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions Group Dbought ⁨Nongshim RedForce⁩ at 86¢happened0x7f73…14f1 · #46 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-10-01Valorant: TYLOO vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions Group Csold ⁨Team Liquid⁩ at 100¢happened0x7f73…14f1 · #46 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-10-01Map Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5)bought ⁨Nongshim RedForce⁩ at 59¢happened0x6ac5…4b6e · #47 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-10-01Valorant: TYLOO vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions Group Csold ⁨Team Liquid⁩ at 100¢happened0x7f73…14f1 · #46 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-10-01Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 38.5bought ⁨Under⁩ at 51¢market still openshown once the market resolves
2026-10-01Counter-Strike: B8 vs Luminosity (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffsbought ⁨Luminosity⁩ at 44¢happened0x8a86…4998 · #17 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-10-01Map Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5)bought ⁨Nongshim RedForce⁩ at 58¢happened0x6ac5…4b6e · #35 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-10-01Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padresbought ⁨San Diego Padres⁩ at 73¢happened0x1250…8f99 · #42 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-10-01Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankeessold ⁨New York Yankees⁩ at 100¢happened0x1250…8f99 · #46 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-10-01Spread: Browns (-3.5)bought ⁨Browns⁩ at 29¢market still openshown once the market resolves
2026-10-01Valorant: TYLOO vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions Group Cbought ⁨Team Liquid⁩ at 81¢happened0x7f73…14f1 · #45 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-10-01Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5bought ⁨Over⁩ at 46¢did not happen0x8a86…4998 · #15 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-09-30Valorant: TYLOO vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions Group Cbought ⁨Team Liquid⁩ at 79¢happened0x6ac5…4b6e · #48 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-09-30Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankeesbought ⁨New York Yankees⁩ at 56¢happened0x26b4…b8a9 · #42 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-09-30Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astrosbought ⁨Chicago White Sox⁩ at 42¢happened0x8a86…4998 · #23 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-09-30Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Bravessold ⁨Atlanta Braves⁩ at 89¢did not happen0x8a86…4998 · #23 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-09-30Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Bravessold ⁨Atlanta Braves⁩ at 89¢did not happen0x8a86…4998 · #23 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-09-30Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Bravessold ⁨Atlanta Braves⁩ at 89¢did not happen0x8a86…4998 · #23 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-09-30Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Bravessold ⁨Atlanta Braves⁩ at 90¢did not happen0x8a86…4998 · #23 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-09-30Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Bravessold ⁨Atlanta Braves⁩ at 60¢did not happen0x8a86…4998 · #24 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-09-30Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padresbought ⁨San Diego Padres⁩ at 56¢happened0x1d1a…0df6 · #45 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-09-30Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padresbought ⁨San Diego Padres⁩ at 56¢happened0x16bb…8492 · #50 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-09-30Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?bought ⁨Yes⁩ at 42¢market still openshown once the market resolves
2026-09-30China Open: Nuno Borges vs Novak Djokovicbought ⁨Novak Djokovic⁩ at 73¢happened0xcfe8…3a6c · #37 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-09-30LoL: T1 Academy vs Galions (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffsbought ⁨T1 Academy⁩ at 60¢happened0x6ac5…4b6e · #49 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-09-30Valorant: Team Vitality vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Group Bbought ⁨Team Vitality⁩ at 46¢happened0x076d…8d4c · #29 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-09-30Jingshan: Elias Ymer vs Terence Atmanebought ⁨Elias Ymer⁩ at 56¢happened0x076d…8d4c · #32 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-09-30Columbus: Bryce Nakashima vs Jack Kennedysold ⁨Bryce Nakashima⁩ at 100¢happened0x26b4…b8a9 · #49 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-09-29Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5bought ⁨Under⁩ at 51¢did not happen0x16bb…8492 · #21 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-09-29Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5bought ⁨Over⁩ at 47¢happened0x8a86…4998 · #39 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-09-29Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5bought ⁨Over⁩ at 46¢happened0x8a86…4998 · #39 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-09-29Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?bought ⁨No⁩ at 48¢market still openshown once the market resolves
2026-09-29Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Bravesbought ⁨Atlanta Braves⁩ at 64¢happened0x26b4…b8a9 · #47 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-09-29Dota 2: 1win vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winnerbought ⁨Natus Vincere⁩ at 47¢did not happen0x7c37…6aeb · #8 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-09-29Valorant: G2 Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Group Cbought ⁨G2 Esports⁩ at 45¢did not happen0x8a86…4998 · #39 on Polymarket's profit board
2026-09-29Valorant: G2 Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Group Cbought ⁨G2 Esports⁩ at 44¢did not happen0x7c37…6aeb · #8 on Polymarket's profit board

About Corvus

Information about public Polymarket data, not investment advice.